Stimulus hopes could help the stock market and interest rates in coming week

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Written by SciTechNerds

February 14, 2021

Earnings season is starting to wind down, however some large names have yet to report.

Walmart‘s earnings on Thursday should present a very good window into the consumer, as should the federal government’s retail sales report for January, also anticipated Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon releases minutes from its final assembly, and traders will dig into these for any insight into the central bank’s view on inflation.

Two dominant themes amid stimulus prospects

Inflation and rising rates of interest have been two dominant themes for traders just lately and have become increasingly so as the market has upgraded its view of how a lot fiscal coronavirus stimulus might be signed into legislation.

“The market is waiting to see how big the package is going to be. It’s going to be important. They can get it through reconciliation,” mentioned Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Monetary.

Krosby mentioned that Democrats may move the stimulus under budget reconciliation, which implies they may approve it with a simple majority instead of counting on negotiations with Republicans.

Some within the markets had anticipated a package deal of $1 trillion or much less if there was a negotiated deal, however that now seems to be unlikely. Strategists have modified their view on the proposed $1.9 trillion package deal.

“There is less pushback to President Biden’s proposed stimulus from moderate Democrats than we expected, so a price tag of around $1.5 trillion seems likely, which is higher than we initially thought,” famous Cornerstone Macro coverage analysts.

They are saying they anticipate a bill to come back up for a vote throughout the week of Feb. 22, and that it may grow to be law by the first week of March. Buyers will keep centered on its progress through Congress.

Market professionals expect the larger the spending package deal, the bigger the pop will probably be in economic growth within the near time period. That has helped send Treasury yields, which move reverse price, to higher levels.

It has additionally elevated concerns about inflation.

Inflation and rising yields

Prior to now week, the 10-year yield — a key benchmark — touched 1.2% for the first time since March. It reached that stage briefly early within the week but returned to it within the remaining hour of trading Friday.

Yields are rising on optimism for an improving financial system, but also as inflation expectations also move higher.

“If you think about the big drivers, they’re related – vaccines, stimulus and inflation,” mentioned Michael Schumacher, head of rate strategy at Wells Fargo Securities. “If there’s more talk out of D.C. about moving the stimulus package forward, that sets the stage for yields to go up.”

The market is worried in regards to the financial system running hotter, because it might be a trigger to change Fed policy.

At the same time, the Fed has mentioned it could tolerate inflation above its 2% target.

Krosby of Prudential Monetary mentioned the market will even take note of the producer price index Wednesday even though it isn’t usually a giant factor.

“Because there’s such a debate on inflationary trends, I know the CPI [consumer price index] came in comfortable, but the producer price index is coming in and we’ll see if that has eased,” she mentioned.

“Obviously supply chains are being reestablished and inventories are building,” mentioned Krosby.

Client inflation was operating at an annual pace of 1.4% in January.

Housing statistics

Housing data is also dominant on the calendar within the holiday-shortened week.

The National Association of Home Builders releases its housing market index data on Wednesday, a measurement of sentiment around market conditions for brand spanking new home sales.

On Thursday, the federal government will issue data on pending home sales and building permits. Lastly, the National Association of Realtors will launch existing home sales data on Friday.

Hearing on GME and short squeezes

Shares were higher in the past week, with energy, tech and financials as the very best performers. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, ending the week at 3,934.

There have been some market hot spots, like cannabis shares, which became the latest target of the Reddit buying and selling group. The shares shot higher Wednesday, including to already lofty gains in latest weeks before giving up a few of these advances.

Buyers will also be centered on the Thursday hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the wild trading recently in GameStop and other heavily shorted names.

Robinhood’s CEO is expected to testify, as are executives from Melvin Capital Management and Citadel.

The frenzied activity in some small and shorted shares has raised issues in regards to the market becoming overheated. However Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, mentioned the broader market’s advance is undamaged.

“Overall, it’s a bull market. I think the steadiness of the advance is underappreciated,” Wald mentioned. He mentioned the market technicals are wholesome. Breadth is broad based and there is cyclical leadership.

“The low-volatility, high-dividend paying sectors are at risk,” mentioned Wald. Utilities and consumer staples stocks, which each match that category, had been lower on the week.

The market was additionally awaiting the end result of the Senate impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump, and it isn’t anticipated to react.

Week forward calendar

Monday

Presidents Day vacation

Markets closed

Tuesday

Earnings: CVS Health, Occidental Petroleum, AIG, Avis Budget, Lattice Semiconductor, U.S. Foods, Advance Auto Parts, Vulcan Materials, Palantir, Agilent, La-Z-Boy

8:30 a.m. Empire manufacturing

11:10 a.m. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

12:30 p.m. Kansas City Fed President Esther George

1:00 p.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan

4:00 p.m. TIC data

Wednesday

Earnings: Hilton Worldwide, Synopsys, Pioneer Natural Resources, Cheesecake Factory, Tanger Factory Outlets, Hyatt Hotels, Owens Corning, Baidu, CF Industries, Marathon Oil, Analog Devices

7:00 a.m. Mortgage applications

8:30 a.m. Retail gross sales

8:30 a.m. PPI

9:15 a.m. Industrial production

10:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren

10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes

Thursday

Earnings: Walmart, Applied Materials, Cabot Oil & Gas, Barrick Gold, Southern Co., Waste Management, Marriott, Dropbox, Trip Advisor, Consolidated Edison, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Airbus, Daimler

8:00 a.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard

8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Building permits

8:30 a.m. Housing begins

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

Friday

Earnings: Deere, Eni, Allianz

10:00 a.m. Existing homes sales

11:00 a.m. Boston Fed’s Rosengren

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